Contemplating Courts by Lee J. Epstein

Author:Lee J. Epstein [Epstein, Lee J.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: International, Judicial Branch, Political Science, American Government, Law
ISBN: 9781483304526
Google: ZlsXBAAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 30682281
Publisher: CQ Press
Published: 1995-01-01T00:00:00+00:00

Table 10-2 Logistic Regression of Search and Seizure Fact Pattern Model, 1962-1990

Note: Percentage predicted correctly. 66.0; N = 573. MLE = maximum likelihood estimate; S.E. = standard error; Sig = significance level; n.s. = not significant; dash = not applicable.

The final column in the table, “Impact,” represents the change in the probability that a search will be found reasonable when the variable in question is present and the search otherwise has a 50 percent chance of being upheld. Thus when a search has a 50 percent chance of being upheld, a search of one’s home lowers the probability that a search will be found reasonable by .15.

Table 10-2 presents us with the following information. First we examine the place of the search. Here, the variables are all compared to a baseline category of a place where one does not have a property interest. Thus, searches of one’s home and one’s place of business significantly decrease the probability that a search will be found reasonable compared with a search of a place where one does not have a property interest, such as the home of a friend. One’s person receives slightly more protection than the baseline category, whereas one’s car does not receive significantly more protection than a place in which one does not have a property interest. We will see shortly, though, that in our more complete models the variable crosses the threshold into statistical significance.

We next consider the arrest variables, which are all compared to a baseline where no arrest took place. Searches incident to a lawful arrest are much more likely to be upheld than exactly similar searches that were not preceded by an arrest. In contrast, searches that are after but not incident to a lawful arrest just miss the. 10 significance level. Searches after unlawful arrests slightly decrease the probability that the search will be found reasonable.

The existence of warrants and probable cause strongly and significantly increases the probability of a finding that a search was reasonable. Both variables are significant at p < .005.16 That is, the probability that these results are due to chance is less than 1 in 200. Full intrusions, compared with lesser intrusions, do not appear to receive more stringent treatment from courts of appeals judges. Finally, various exceptions to the warrant requirement significantly increase the probability that a search will be found reasonable.

Overall, the model is significant at p < .001. We predict the outcome of 66 percent of the judges’ votes correctly.17 This suggests that case stimuli, important to both the legal and the attitudinal models, do influence circuit court decisions. Moreover, our model suggests that we have done a fairly good job of controlling for the facts of the case and thus can examine additional factors with a reasonable degree of confidence.

We next consider whether circuit court judges are responsive to changes in decision making by the U.S. Supreme Court, as suggested by the legal model. We accomplish this by adding to our fact-pattern model a variable that represents changing Supreme Court preferences from the end of the Warren Court through 1990.

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